By Mike Anderson

There was a rousing cheer from Jacob Mantle’s supporters at The Beach Lakefront Bar and Grill in Keswick on Monday night when CTV News confirmed he was the first candidate past the post in York-Durham.

Earlier, Mantle and his campaign team, including Peter Van Loan, a former Conservative MP for York-Simcoe, were confident but slightly nervous as Liberal Rob Grossi’s vote count started climbing. However, as more polls began to report, Mantle’s lead ballooned, putting any doubts to rest.

In the end, Mantle comfortably won the newly created riding of York-Durham with 55 per cent of the vote — 39,726 out of the total 71,554 votes cast, including 30,908 votes cast at advance polls.

Grossi was second with 28,317 votes, capturing nearly 40 per cent of the vote, and Justin Graham, the New Democratic Party, was a distant third with 1,821 votes (2.54%).

For comparison, Conservative MP Scot Davidson won York-Simcoe handily in the last federal election in 2021, with 24,900 votes or 50% of the total vote. Liberal Daniel Johnson finished second with 14,469 votes (29%). Benjamin Jenkins, NDP, was third with 6,800 votes (13.6%).

The People’s Party of Canada (PPC) did not fare well this time around. PPC candidate Patricia Conlin received 900 votes (1.26%), down from a 7.3% share in 2021. Meanwhile, the Green candidate Matt Pearce received 790 votes (1.1%).

With York-Durham declared Tory blue, Mantle, a trade lawyer and former Uxbridge councillor, wasted no time thanking his campaign team and volunteers. He also thanked his wife Megan and his parents for their support during the campaign.

“It feels amazing to be given the honour and the responsibility to represent the people of York-Durham,” Mantle told the Post.

Mantle says the most significant issue that resonated with Georgina voters was affordability.

“Every time I would knock on doors, I heard from people who live in this community and are now struggling to stay here. That’s because they can’t afford housing. So, it’s people who grew up here and want to live where they grew up, but they can’t afford to stay here anymore,” he said.

While Mantle acknowledges that addressing affordability will be difficult with the Conservatives out of power, he says he is committed to working to resolve the issue.

“I’m going to do that with every fibre of what I got,” he said.

Conservative MP Jacob Mantle with wife Megan

Peter Van Loan says Mantle worked hard to connect with voters and deserves the win.

“Jacob worked hard at getting to know Georgina. He made a special effort to go out and meet with community leaders. He was very concerned about the issues that mattered to the community and the folks that made the community work. And that has a lot to do with his success, especially when you have a fairly popular challenger like Rob Grossi. But the hard work overcame that,” Van Loan said.

“People say it’s a safe Conservative riding. But when I became the MP, Georgina had been Liberal two-thirds of the time since Confederation. I won it from a Liberal incumbent. So it’s not a safe Conservative riding as some people represent it.”

While the location of his constituency office has yet to be determined, Mantle says he’s prepared to put in the kilometres to address the needs of residents in York-Durham, now York Region’s largest riding by area.

“It’s a large riding, and we have to be where the people are. So that means driving there. That means being at events and in the community,” he said.

Over at Bailey’s Homestead Restaurant at the Georgina Ice Palace, where Rob Grossi and his supporters watched the election results filter in, the mood was a bit more sombre but still optimistic, as news outlets projected a Liberal minority government.

While Grossi said he faced numerous challenges, including getting into the race late, he was proud of the effort he and his team made.

“I’m pretty happy with the work that we did. I would be happier if we were elected. Especially, seeing that it’s going to be a Liberal government because then we would have a representative in our ridding who’s part of the government, which we haven’t had and still won’t have for another four years,” Grossi said.

“I always thought that if I ran and was lucky enough to get elected and I was part of the government, then it would help this area get some infrastructure funding, some other things. Unfortunately, when you end up with a representative who is not part of the government in power, you end up barking up a tree and not being very successful.”

One of Grossi’s most significant challenges was the latent animosity toward the Liberal Party, particularly for former PM Justin Trudeau.

“As the candidate, I knew it would be an uphill from day one,” Grossi said.

“Probably the thing that disappointed me the most is that the Conservatives in this riding still voted Conservative, although I gave them an opportunity to have a representative who could truly represent them because I’ve served in this community for 24 years in the past. But they decided they wanted to stay with the Conservative party, which isn’t the same Conservative party I grew up knowing.”

While Grossi says he will reflect on what’s next for him, he doesn’t rule out another run if the Liberal minority government is defeated in the House of Commons.

“If they called an election within the next year or so, I guess there could be a chance,” he said.

Mike Anderson
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